In the carbon project certification process, defining the project boundaries and projecting future conditions are essential steps in the feasibility study. These elements structure the project’s activities and help quantify the expected benefits in terms of greenhouse gas reduction and sequestration.
This second article focuses on two key steps of the VERRA 2.0 VM-0033 methodology: defining the boundaries and projecting the ex-ante conditions of the project. These steps are crucial to ensure compliance with the label’s requirements and optimize the environmental impact. To read the first article on pre-feasibility, click here.
In the feasibility phase, the project documentation must include:
Boundaries: Definition of the geographic limits, property rights, land stratification, and buffer zones to prevent leakage, ensuring a precise structuring of the intervention area.
Ex-ante Projection: Modeling future conditions through two scenarios: the baseline (without the project) and the project scenario (with interventions), to estimate GHG reductions and quantify the expected benefits.
Defining the Boundaries
Boundaries define the geographic and regulatory scope of the project, including several key components:
Area Delimitation: Precise identification of the project’s spatial boundaries to ensure that the included lands meet restoration criteria.
Ownership: Identification of land ownership and control modes, established through statutory rights, contractual agreements, or official transfers to the project proponent.
Stratification: Division into homogeneous sub-units based on factors like water table, soil depth, vegetation, and salinity. This approach allows precise GHG reduction calculations while minimizing uncertainties.
Temporal Definition: Establishment of the crediting period and long-term project benefits, assessing the impact over 100 years.
Buffer Zone: Creation of buffer zones to minimize leakage and reinforce project integrity, distinct from those used in non-permanence calculations.
Ex-ante Projection: Predicting Future Conditions of the Project
Ex-ante projection is a critical part of the project documentation, aiming to model future impacts by comparing two scenarios: the baseline (without intervention) and the project scenario (with restoration interventions). This modeling relies on various methodologies for calculating carbon pools, guided by VERRA’s rigorous approaches.
Baseline: Future Conditions without Intervention
The baseline scenario represents the reference situation, simulating the natural evolution of the ecosystem without restoration intervention. This scenario quantifies GHG emissions and potential degradation in the absence of the project.
It serves as a benchmark to measure the project’s benefits by comparing emissions and sequestration observed in the project scenario.
Project Scenario: Future Conditions with Intervention
The project scenario models the expected outcomes from specific restoration actions, describing the reductions in GHG emissions and increases in carbon sequestration in biomass and soils resulting from the planned interventions.
This scenario includes the direct effects of restoration activities, such as replanting vegetation, restoring the water table, or other measures aimed at ecosystem improvement.
Carbon Pools: Biomass, Soils, and Associated Emissions
Both scenarios assess changes in various carbon pools: live biomass, soils (including organic matter and peatlands), and associated emissions, such as those related to excavation activities. These pools must be accurately quantified in each scenario to determine the net gains in GHG reduction or sequestration.
Methodologies for Calculating Carbon Pools:
To estimate carbon pools in the baseline and project scenarios, multiple approaches are used, each with varying levels of precision. Field sampling is the most accurate method, involving direct measurements of carbon stocks. Proxies or extrapolations use measurable variables to estimate carbon pools, while published scientific data provide a research-backed basis. Deterministic models, such as remote sensing, estimate large-scale stock variations, and default factors are used when specific data are unavailable, representing the least precise approach. The choice of method must be carefully made to avoid accumulating penalties linked to uncertainty and ensure a credible evaluation of the project’s environmental benefits.
These steps help structure the feasibility of a coastal ecosystem restoration project, ensuring each aspect is rigorously defined and projected to maximize environmental impact and project credibility. The next article will detail the process of validating these projections over time, as well as adjusting scenarios based on observed results.
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Source :
VM033 – VERRA
Project documentation – VERRA
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